Mu kwezi kwa Kamena hagati, habaye umuhango wateguwe ku buryo bugaragara cyane ku kiraro cya Mereb giherereye mu karere ka Tigray, ahahuza Etiyopiya n’igihugu cya Eritereya. Abaturage bari bitwaje amabendera ya Tigray n’aya Eritereya, mu rwego rwo kugaragaza ko bagaruriye amahoro mu gace kahangayikishijwe cyane nyuma y’intambara yasize abanya-Tigray ibihumbi n’ibihumbi bapfuye kuva mu 2020.
Gusa ibi bikorwa byo kwiyamamaza nk’ibigaragaza ubwiyunge, ntibisobanuye ko hari intambwe ikomeye yatewe mu bwiyunge cyangwa mu butabera, ahubwo ni ibimenyetso by’umubano urushaho gukomera hagati y’agatsiko k’ingabo za TPLF gafite ubutegetsi i Mekelle n’ubutegetsi bwa Asmara. Ibyo bikorwa biherekejwe n’imvugo zifite ishusho nk’iyavuzwe mbere y’intambara yatangiye mu Ugushyingo 2020.
Mu byumweru bishize, amagambo y’ubushotoranyi yavuzwe n’abanyapolitiki bakomeye bo muri Tigray, Eritereya na Etiyopiya yarushijeho gukara, buri ruhande rushinjanya gukwirakwiza intambara. Leta ya Etiyopiya yo yagaragaje ko “idashaka kurwanya abaturanyi” ariko inahamya ko uburenganzira bwayo bwo kugera ku Nyanja Itukura ari ikibazo cy’ubuzima cyangwa urupfu, ikiyemeza gukoresha “uburyo bwose bushoboka” ngo ibigerereho.
Minisitiri w’Ububanyi n’Amahanga w’Etiyopiya, Gedion Timothewos, yandikiye Umunyamabanga wa Leta wa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Marco Rubio, amumenyesha ko Eritereya iri gutegura igitero kinini ifatanyije n’agatsiko ka TPLF n’andi makoperative yitwaje intwaro, kabone n’ubwo mu magambo yatangaje ko idashaka intambara. Yongeyeho ko Eritereya ishyigikira umutwe w’inyeshyamba wa Fano mu Ntara ya Amhara, yigaruriye ubutaka bwa Etiyopiya ndetse ikanabuza indege za Ethiopian Airlines gukorera ku butaka bwayo.
Ku wa 3 Nyakanga, Minisitiri w’Intebe Abiy Ahmed yagejeje ijambo ku Nteko Ishinga Amategeko, avuga amagambo yuje ubutumwa bw’amahoro n’ubuhuza mu karere, ariko atanga impuruza y’uko “ingaruka zaba mbi cyane kandi zitagenzurwa” mu gihe imirwano yagaruka. Yanashimangiye ko intambara izasubukurwa n’uruhande rwa Tigray n’ubufasha bwa Eritereya.
Na ho Eritereya ibinyujije mu itangazo ry’Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe Itangazamakuru, yashinje Etiyopiya “gukora ku mushinga w’intambara umaze igihe kinini utegurwa”, ikanavuga ko yiteguye “kurwanira ibyambu byayo igihe bibaye ngombwa.”
N’ubwo TPLF yatangaje ko “nta bushake cyangwa imyiteguro ifite yo gusubira mu ntambara”, abayobozi bayo bihanangirije Addis Ababa ku ngaruka zikomeye mu gihe itashyira mu bikorwa amasezerano ya Pretoria. Mu cyumweru gishize, umutwe w’ingabo za TPLF wagabye igitero ku mutwe w’aba-Tigray ushyigikiwe na leta ya Etiyopiya mu majyepfo ya Tigray hafi y’umupaka na Afar.
Uyu mwuka mubi hagati ya Addis Ababa, Mekelle na Asmara ugaragaza ko buri ruhande rushobora gusubira mu ntambara igihe icyo ari cyo cyose. Leta ya Etiyopiya yifuza kugera ku cyambu cya Assab, ariko imbogamizi y’ingenzi ni uko hari igice cy’ubuyobozi cya TPLF kitayishyigikiye. Inzira yoroheje yo kugera ku nyanja yanyura i Tigray, ariko ingabo za TDF zifite ubushobozi bwo kurwana cyane zitaratanga umurongo uhamye, bikaba bisobanuye ko Addis iri mu mutego wayo ubwayo.
Ibibazo bya politiki biremereye biri i Tigray byatuma Addis itekereza kabiri mbere yo kugaba igitero. Kandi kimwe mu bintu byonyine bituma iyi ntambara itaratangira ni uko Leta ya Etiyopiya itabashije kwigarurira ingabo za TDF ngo zibafashe, cyane ko zimwe mu ngabo za leta ziri mu mirwano ikaze mu karere ka Amhara zifatanya na Fano, umutwe w’inyeshyamba ushyigikiwe na Eritereya.
Intambara ishobora kwaduka ifite ubushobozi bwo kwibasira akarere kose. Amasomo y’amateka n’intambara zimaze igihe muri aka karere k’Ibiyaga bigari agaragaza ko byahinduka intambara mpuzamahanga, kimwe n’iyugarije Sudani muri iki gihe. Mu ntambara ya Sudani, imijyi ikomeye y’Abarabu nka Cairo, Riyadh na Abu Dhabi yagiye ishyigikira impande zitandukanye. Izi mpande kandi zishobora no kugira uruhare mu ntambara hagati ya Eritereya na Etiyopiya.
Misiri ifite inyungu nyinshi mu guhagarika Etiyopiya kugera ku Nyanja Itukura, nk’uko idashaka ko Addis igira ijambo ku mishinga ikomeye nka GERD, urugomero rufata amazi y’Inil. Mu ijambo rye, Abiy Ahmed yavuze ko uyu mushinga ugeze ku musozo, akatumiye ibihugu birimo Misiri mu muhango wo kuwufungura muri Nzeri.
Ibi byateje impaka zikomeye. Perezida wa Misiri, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, hamwe na Jenerali wa SAF (Ingabo za Leta ya Sudani), Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, batangaje ko bamagana “ibikorwa byose byihariye ku mugezi wa Nil” bidakozwemo n’impande zose.
Sudani na yo ishobora kwinjira muri iyi ntambara, cyane cyane ku kibazo cy’akarere k’ubuhinzi ka Al-Fashaga, aho abasirikare ba Etiyopiya bashinjwa kwirukana abahinzi b’Abasudani. N’ubwo SAF yaba ifite ikibazo cy’umubare w’ingabo zihugijwe n’indi mirwano imbere mu gihugu, ishobora gutanga intwaro n’ibikoresho ku ruhande rwa Eritereya binyuze ku mupaka muremure ihana na Etiyopiya.
Niba intambara itangiye, kandi ingabo za Etiyopiya ntizishobore kwigarurira Asmara vuba, amakimbirane ashobora gutera ibihugu by’Abarabu gutanga intwaro nk’uko byagenze muri Sudani. Inkunga ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu kuri Addis izagira uruhare rukomeye, kimwe n’inkunga Misiri na Arabia Saoudite zishobora guha Asmara.
Intambara yaherukaga hagati ya Etiyopiya na Eritereya mu 1998-2000 ku butaka buto yatumye ibihumbi by’abantu bapfa, Eritereya ikajya mu kato. Ariko ubu ikibazo kirakomeye kurushaho. Iyo ntambara nshya yaba ifite ubushobozi bwo kubangamira akarere kose, ndetse ikaba yateza ibibazo bikomeye ku baturage miliyoni zishobora gusubira mu bikorwa by’intambara no mu bihe by’inzara.
Abantu benshi bemeza ko intambara iri hafi gutangira. Ibirwanisho byamaze kugera ku butaka, ingabo zimaze kwitegura, kandi intandaro zaragaragaye. Mu gihe Etiyopiya na Eritereya zaba zinjiye mu mirwano ikaze nk’iy’i Tigray, izi ntambara zishobora kumara imyaka myinshi zitarangira, zifashijwe n’abaterankunga batandukanye, bityo hakaba hagiye gutangira indi ntambara itagira iherezo mu karere k’Afurika y’Iburasirazuba.
